Can the Awami League rebuild itself in Bangladesh through local elections?

The Awami League has taken a decisive step towards re-entering Bangladesh’s political arena by choosing to contest the upcoming local body elections, a move that signals both urgency and calculated risk for a party attempting to rebuild after the fall of Sheikh Hasina. The decision, confirmed by several senior leaders in the party, is being framed internally not merely as participation in routine local governance but as a necessary assertion of political relevance in a landscape that has shifted dramatically in recent months. According to party insiders, the directive to contest has come with what they describe as the approval of the “high command”. Leaders acknowledge that staying away from elections any longer would risk disconnecting the Awami League from its grassroots base, weakening its cadre network and allowing rivals to consolidate control over local institutions. A former Hasina cabinet minister described the moment as an existential necessity. “Without returning to electoral politics, rebuilding the party within the country will become increasingly difficult,” the minister said. At the foundation of Bangladesh’s local governance system are the union parishads, 4,578 in number, each consisting of a chairperson, nine general members and three women elected from reserved seats, bringing the total to 13 representatives per unit. These bodies are not merely administrative, but also the primary interface between political parties and rural voters, making them crucial for any organisation seeking to rebuild mass support. The urban counterpart to this structure is found in the pourasabhas, around 330 municipalities that govern smaller towns. Functionally comparable to union parishads, they serve as important nodes in urban political networks. Above the two tiers are the 495 upazila parishads, which operate at the sub-district level and coordinate governance across rural and semi-urban areas. At the district level, the 64 zila parishads represent a more indirect system of power, with members elected not by the public but by representatives from the lower tiers. This layered hierarchy means that success at the grassroots can translate into influence at higher administrative levels. In parallel, Bangladesh’s largest urban centres are governed by 12 city corporations, including Dhaka North City Corporation and Dhaka South City Corporation, which carry both administrative weight and political visibility. Together, this multi-tiered system creates a dense electoral map, one that the Awami League now seeks to reoccupy, at least partially. Yet the party’s return is complicated by the fact that it continues to operate under a ban imposed by the Mohammad Yunus-led interim government that ruled Bangladesh following the July uprising of 2024 and the fall of Hasina on August 5, when she fled the country. The current elected government led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which took charge on February 17 this year, has not lifted the ban yet. Awami League had been barred from participating in national elections. The restrictions, introduced in the aftermath of the political transition that followed Hasina’s exit, have left the party in a state of legal ambiguity. This has raised a central question that remains unanswered: will the Awami League contest the elections under its own banner and symbol or adopt an alternative strategy? Intelligence inputs suggest that sections of the leadership favour a more assertive approach, arguing that contesting openly under the party’s name would signal resilience and a refusal to be politically erased. However, party sources indicate that a final decision has not yet been taken. The persistence of the ban introduces both legal risks and concerns about the safety of candidates and workers. As a fallback, the party appears prepared to field candidates as independents if the ban is not lifted in time. A senior leader currently based in London indicated that this option is being actively considered, noting that while the party wants to return to poll politics, it must also adapt to prevailing constraints. Contesting as independents would allow Awami League members to remain in the electoral fray, though it would come at the cost of organisational coherence and brand visibility. The challenge is further compounded by the dispersal of leadership. Following the collapse of the Hasina government, many senior leaders and activists left Bangladesh, creating a politically active but geographically distant diaspora. While there is no formal legal barrier preventing them from contesting elections, the risks associated with returning, including the possibility of arrest or physical attacks, remain significant. As a result, those currently within Bangladesh are expected to carry the burden of electoral participation. This makes the upcoming local elections an unusually revealing test. The number of seats the Awami League manages to win across union parishads, municipalities and other tiers will serve as a direct measure of its residual strength on the ground. Though it claims to have sweeping public support, experts claim that years of alleged misrule has reduced its vote share to a meagre 15-20%. The polls will indicate whether the party’s organisational networks remain intact or have been significantly eroded since 2024. At a broader level, the stakes extend beyond organisational metrics. The elections are likely to be read as an early indicator of whether conditions are emerging for the party’s larger political return. Within the ranks, there is a growing, if cautious, recognition that re-establishing a presence at the grassroots could be the first step in creating the conditions for Hasina’s eventual return to Bangladesh. That possibility remains uncertain and contingent on multiple factors, including legal developments and the evolving political climate, but it nonetheless shapes the strategic thinking of the leadership. The context in which this decision is being implemented remains fluid. The rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by PM Tarique Rahman as the governing force has altered the balance of power, creating a more competitive and, at times, volatile environment. For the Awami League, participation in the local elections is therefore both a necessity and a gamble. However, while the party buckles up to re-enter electoral politics in Bangladesh, its prospects depend ultimately on the government actually deciding to hold the civic polls. The story was written by Arkamoy Datta Majumdar.